If analysis must be, let it be raw. The European Parliament is not much more than a pleonastic body, as it doesn’t own the trust relationship with the executive organ, Commission. Fine? Anyway, maybe this wave of dissent will bring a renewal. But how?
Immigration policy cannot continue to be the theater of the Dublin agreements, tailor-made for the countries of continental and industrial Europe, this is certain and cannot be denied by any rhetoric, as far as the essential cause of immigration, got a specific name: the imperialism over the countries of Africa.
In France, Le Pen (24.7%) exceeds Macron (21.62%); in Poland the ultra-conservative PIS leaders triumph; Orban in Hungary flies to 56%; in Austria Kurz, despite recent scandals, wins again; in England the most ardent supporter of Brexit, Farage, wins.
In Holland, Timmermans, who has done an immense job, with the least national election campaign of all the candidates, wins with the Labor party; alongside the centrist coalitions, in Germany and Ireland there is a green boom; in Greece “Nea Democrazia” exceeds “Syriza” and Tsipras announces early elections.
What will happen? It was said at the beginning: it is only a democratic game. Almost nothing can be done by the European Parliament. The actual power is in the hands of another body, the Commission, which feels more the control of national governments (through the European Council) than that the one of the Parliament, towards which it does not have the obligation of trust. Parliamentary acts are unlikely to affect Commission Directives, which are acts that directly affect national legislation. As Europe is made today, Parliament is only the kind concession of a pleonastic symbolic senate to the bourgeois classes that manage to get elected by their territories, like ancient régime provincial aristocracy. This gives the single elected one justa status of notable and no real power of influence over the policies.
The irruption on the European scene of a new class of notables will therefore have an effect of apparent “circulation of the elites”, which however is already stemmed by a substantial lack of power. In political terms, given the system of community organs, it is not a question of true “political elites” but of “notables” paid to remain in a consociational garden, without harming any real power.
On closer inspection, there is something much stronger and less immediately understandable. The real danger is that the Bannon strategy that brings the Atlantic wind triumphs, and that is to use populist nationalism, through the fatal temptations of capital, to implement a nice play to “split everything”, that is to destroy Europe from within, from inside, as the most ultraliberal positions have long thought to do. This is the real risk.